Investor Newsletter - April 2021
A warm welcome
Firstly, I hope you and your families have kept safe and well during this latest lockdown, hopefully our last.
The excitement presently is palpable. Vaccines are being injected into people’s arms, schools are reopening, Instagram feeds are flooded with “Fauci ouchie” selfies, the weather is heating up, the sun is out past 7 p.m., and the promise of a post-pandemic summer for many has created a frenzy. If you believe the hype, we are in for a “Roaring 2020s,” with all of the frivolity, excess and licentiousness of the 1920s, when a wave of euphoria washed over much of the world after the ending of both the influenza pandemic and World War I. As such, several pundits, journalists, commentators, and academics have been drawing parallels with that historical period, suggesting the post-Coronavirus recovery could be characterised by an economic boom, as illustrated in a recent cover story of The Economist.
But what cannot be excluded is that an economic boom might materialise for selected countries within the EU – perhaps on the back of a more successful rollout of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) or an export-led model anchored to the resumption of global growth. We saw how exits from moments of crisis can pave the way for a differentiated recovery, even within a general supportive growth environment (as happened in the early 1920s). Further, large mega-trends like the shift to a new growth model based on the digital or green economy, and the challenges related to ageing, could further exacerbate the problem of uneven growth within the Union.
Global equity markets have enjoyed a strong month to end the first quarter, though there was notable volatility, with inflation worries, markets contending with increasing political crackdown on Big Tech in China and the US, Greensill, Bill Hwang’s margin call, North Korean missile launches and the mishap in the Suez Canal, among others. Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package was also passed, and the distribution of stimulus cheques commenced with Democrats already working on the next stimulus, though it is likely that this will need to be at least part paid for with higher taxes. Under Joe Biden’s plans, US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, outlined that the US corporate tax rate would rise from 21% to 28%. It is thought that not all Democrats are on board for that level of increase and negotiations to a rate of 25% might be more palatable.
I hope you enjoy reading our latest newsletter and would like to thank you for your continued support and trust with your financial affairs. It is through mutual respect, our cultural values, integrity and hard work that we aim to deliver the best possible outcomes, to give you and your families peace of mind. We are delighted to work with each and every one of you, who are foremost in all of our decision-making.
Franklin D. Roosevelt once said “Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the assessment that something else is more important than fear.’’
Stay safe, keep healthy and mind what is important.
Warmest regards,
Mark O’Sullivan
Managing Director
Mark O’Sullivan,
Managing Director